Suez Canal Crisis Sparks Global Inflation Concerns as Red Sea Tensions Persist

Jan 02, 2024

In a continuing crisis in the Red Sea region, disruptions to the Suez Canal, a crucial maritime passage, are causing severe interference with global trade. Several shipping companies rerouting their vessels may lead to increased costs, potentially elevating the risk of worldwide inflation.

The Suez Canal, situated north of the Red Sea, connects the Mediterranean Sea, serving as the fastest maritime route between Asia and Europe. Approximately 15% of global maritime trade, including nearly 30% of container trade, passes through this vital waterway. Due to the uncertain security situation in the Red Sea, as of the morning of the 21st, 158 merchant ships have opted to bypass the canal.

According to S&P Global estimates, freighters traveling from Rotterdam, Netherlands, to Singapore face a 40% increase in their journey if they choose the alternative route around the Cape of Good Hope. As reported by the U.S. Consumer News and Business Channel, the average cost of shipping a 40-foot container has surged from $2,400 to $10,000 by the 21st of this month, and trucking costs in the Middle East have more than doubled.

Beyond container shipping, the Suez Canal is a critical route for oil transportation in the Middle East. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration reveals that in the first half of 2023, approximately 9% of global oil demand, equivalent to around 9.2 million barrels per day, transited through the Suez Canal. With recent spikes in international oil prices, New York crude prices rose by 2.98%, and Brent crude prices increased by 3.29% last week. This directly impacts gasoline and related product prices, indirectly raising the cost of transporting goods.

The market is now closely monitoring the duration of vessels diverting from their original routes. Executives from various logistics companies believe that if the obstruction to cargo supply persists for a month, it will significantly escalate price levels, ultimately affecting consumers. Analysts warn that without a resolution in the supply chain for the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, there is a risk of resurging inflation in Europe and the United States next year.

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