Europe's Natural Gas Crisis Persists Amid Multiple Ongoing Risks

Aug 07, 2023


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The European natural gas crisis is far from over, and potential risks loom large, warns the International Energy Agency (IEA). Even though the EU's gas storage levels may approach 100% by October this year, there is no guarantee that the natural gas market will remain stable in the future. With Russia still supplying around 10% of the EU's gas imports and the possibility of a harsh winter, the continent faces a challenging "cold winter."


Despite the EU's current gas storage being nearly 20% higher than the five-year average, analysts predict that the storage capacity, capable of holding approximately 100 billion cubic meters of gas, may only reach 90% of the official EU target by November. This situation could threaten normal energy supply if faced with cold weather, complete disruption of pipeline gas from Russia, and low liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies.


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The 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict led to soaring energy prices, prompting the EU to take rapid measures to reduce its natural gas demand, resulting in a 13% decline in 2022, the largest drop in history. However, the effectiveness of policies aimed at reducing natural gas demand was not as significant as expected, with around 100 billion cubic meters of the reduction attributed to production cuts rather than increased efficiency or alternative energy usage.


The IEA advises the EU to carefully assess the impact of international situations on its domestic energy market. As LNG constitutes a significant portion of the EU's energy demand, and with limited new LNG and pipeline capacity coming online globally before 2025, the market balance remains fragile. Any unexpected positive impact on the demand side could lead to a rapid increase in gas prices.


Europe's negative electricity prices


Despite the decrease in demand in 2022, the EU's natural gas import bill for the entire year still amounted to nearly €400 billion, over three times the total for 2021. Although Russia's share of gas exports to the EU dropped to below 10%, the substantial increase in natural gas prices continued to provide Russia with substantial revenue.

According to the latest World Gas Report from the International Gas Union (IGU), the current natural gas market remains imbalanced, and the crisis is not yet over. While LNG prices have come down from their peak in 2022, there is still a potential risk of a repeat of market fluctuations. Europe's reliance on imported LNG increased significantly in 2022, with imports growing by 66%, of which 70% were spot trades. The European market heavily depends on spot LNG, which may exacerbate price volatility.


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