Aramco CEO: IEA's Oil Demand Peak Prediction Unrealistic

Oct 19, 2023

Amin Nasser, the Chief Executive Officer of Saudi Aramco, has stated that despite the company's global oil consumption forecasts being adjusted downward over the past decade, their outlook remains more optimistic than many observers.

He mentioned that the demand could rise to 110 million barrels per day by 2030, while Saudi Aramco's projection for demand in 2010 was approximately 125 million barrels per day.

Even with Nasser's revised outlook, it surpasses other prominent predictions, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting that oil demand could drop below 105 million barrels per day. Nasser stated on Monday that the IEA's prediction of oil consumption peaking in this decade and growing at a slower pace in the short term as the pace of energy transition accelerates has been proven unrealistic.

Nasser, speaking at the World Petroleum Congress held in Calgary, said, "This concept is also withering under review because it is primarily policy-driven rather than a result of market, competitive economics, and mature technology. Energy transition has no silver bullet." Nasser predicts that oil demand by 2030 will grow by about 7% from the record-breaking 103 to 104 million barrels per day he forecasted for the latter half of this year. He noted that this sustained usage makes attempts to phase out fossil fuels too quickly "dangerous."

Nasser is not the only one with an optimistic view of crude oil demand. Last week, OPEC forecasted that the global oil market would face a shortage of over 3 million barrels per day in the next quarter, which could be the largest deficit in over a decade. The IEA, on the other hand, anticipates a smaller deficit of 1.2 million barrels per day in the latter half of the year, although the deficit remains substantial.


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