Long-term forecasts from forecasters Maxar Technologies and Marex show there would be no cold snap in Europe in November, easing pressure on households worried about heating costs and governments previously busy with storing natural gas.
Maxar meteorologist Matthew Dross said: “In terms of energy demand, given current global energy conditions, a mild start to November will be a welcome sign. However, occasional cold air in November and throughout the 2022-2023 winter cannot be ruled out. "
He noted that Europe is expected to see above-normal temperatures in early November, while mild weather will continue throughout the month. Other forecasters said average temperatures could return in the second half of the month.
Gas prices in Europe have fallen sharply since peaking in August, but are still around 80% higher than at the same time last year. Rising energy prices have pushed up costs for consumers and industries, with many facing costly winter bills.
Dross also said that autumns in Europe were already unusually warm, with the fewest days in October requiring heating since 2000, helping to reduce the rate of gas consumption. At present, the gas storage capacity of European natural gas storage facilities is about 95%, of which Germany is close to 99%.
Factors such as lower-than-expected gas demand, falling prices and limited capacity to accommodate imported LNG have sparked more use of floating storage. Global traders are keeping liquefied natural gas on ships for longer, pushing up October's record high volume at sea, and they also expect gas prices to rise later in the quarter.
A warm November is far from solving Europe's energy problems, but a delay of the heating season will at least ease the pressure on policymakers. If the region doesn't go through severe cold weather this winter, consumers could get a respite from the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades.